After an unbelievably successful week (5-0, +500), one can only assume there will be a regression to the mean. But guess what??? NOT HERE. We are ready to go 5-0 for you once again and break the Vegas banks. Take these tickets, put them under your pillow to keep em safe and get ready to bathe in cash on Sunday. Lets get to the picks:
Duke (-5) vs. Wake Forest; 44.5
After seeing Wake Forest’s abysmal offensive effort against Tulane where they only scored 7 points, I cannot reasonably comprehend this going over the total of 44.5 points. Duke is starting a backup quarterback (Thomas Sirk went down right before the season started) and the new starter, Daniel Jones, only threw 15 passes in game one. David Cutcliffe is an outstanding coach who knows what it takes to win at an underdog school. He knows he does not want to put the ball in the hands of a freshman QB too much. Thomas Sirk threw the ball 40 times last year against Wake and was the team’s leading rusher (57 yards). The running backs for Duke didn’t even total 100 yards. All of these signs point to a few things. Duke will try to run the ball and Wake Forest will do a decent job of stopping it. This total is slightly inflated because of the 49 point total Duke put up on North Carolina Central. Yes, North Carolina Central (don’t worry about it).
With Duke’s Freshman QB and an underrated Wake Forest defense, we won’t see many points. We are taking the first Over/Under pick of the year for AVS. The Pick: UNDER 44.5
TCU (-7.5) vs. Arkansas; 58.5
Here at Almost Varsity Sports we are all in on TCU this year. We picked them to win the Big 12 and to hit the over on the season win total. After a very slow start for TCU, they squeaked out an 18 point win over an awful South Dakota State team. Arkansas looked just as bad against a Louisiana Tech team that is going to have a down year. TCU suffered the same fate a few major teams did last Saturday. Because of the rust, the team started off slow and pulled away late.
Kenny Hill, the Texas A&M transfer, threw for 440 yards and 2 touchdowns in game one. He also ran for 45 yards and got 3 touchdowns on the ground. In 2014, as a member of the Aggies, Hill quarterbacked the team to a win over the Razorbacks. The TCU offense likes to move the ball up and down the field quickly and Arkansas only has one third team preseason All-SEC defender. TCU will not have problems putting up points against a suspect Arkansas secondary.
The Arkansas offense sputtered against a bad Louisiana Tech team. Gary Patterson will have the Horned Frogs defense ready to go after that poor showing. I am much more confident in a Gary Patterson run team than a Brett Bielema team. The pick: TCU -7 (Buy the half point to 7)
Navy (-3.5) vs. Connecticut; 46
Last year Navy beat UConn 28-18. However, this is a Navy team without the best player in school history, Keenan Reynolds. These are two run heavy teams that will continue to pound the rock throughout the game. UConn comes into the game where they were almost embarrassed by Maine. I expect both teams to milk the clock. With a third string QB at the helm for Navy, I expect this game will be a grind. The pick: UNDER 46
Florida (-17) vs. Kentucky; 47.5
For another year, Florida has no QB. The offense is missing an identity and the defense is, once again, very good. The Kentucky offense played decently in the week 1 matchup. However, against a defense led by Jalen Tabor, the challenge should be much greater. The confines of the swamp won’t be too friendly to the visiting Wildcats. Florida will pressure Drew Barker and the turnovers will be key. The pick: UNDER 47.5
Miami (-24.5) vs. Florida Atlantic; 60.5
Miami showed up last week and put 70 on Florida A&M. This offense looked explosive and the the FAU offense won’t be able to do enough to keep up. Almost Varsity was high on Miami to start the year and they haven’t done anything to change that. Mark Richt is a players coach and this team loves him. Three players rushed for over 100 yards in the first game of the year. The combination of Joseph Yearby and Brad Kaaya are going to find the endzone early and often. The pick: Miami -24.5
Leans (no official plays):
Boston College/UMass under 39.5
Northern Illinois +15
Good luck everybody. Tweet those winning tickets at us @AlmostVaristy. Lets keep these winnings ways going…