Almost Varsity Sports Hot Soup: NCAA WK 3

Call me Patrick.  I’m here to give you free money.  After a pretty hot start to the year, we’re here to keep it up for all.  7-3 so far (2-3 last week)(+370).

Lets get to the picks:

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Houston (-7.5); 64.5

Greg Ward Jr is back.  Duke Catalon is back.  They were cleared to play Tuesday this week.  They are not playing on short rest here.  Both of these offensive stars were not rushed back and were allowed to focus entirely on this huge division game on Thursday night football.  Without those two, the Cougars were still able to lay a 44-0 beatdown on Lamar.  Tom Herman has turned into one of the most underrated coaches in the nation and Houston can only hope to keep for a long time.  This team is well aware that they are in the spotlight here and will be a lot this year with multiple Thursday night games.  They are already entrenched in the national title conversation and do not want to leave any doubt in the CFP voters’ minds.  Houston needs to keep winning decisively to make a run at this.  I expect Houston to be up 17-21 early in the third.  I think they’ll run the ball the rest of the game and milk the clock.  A Cincinnati offense run by Hayden Moore doesn’t scare me here.  I’m expecting Houston to be around 40 points tonight.  I can’t see the Bearcats putting up 30+ to keep this within the number.  I think the Cougars take this game by 10-13.  The Pick: Houston (-7.5);  2 Units

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Miami (-3.5); 51.5

Here at AVS there are not many teams we are riding harder than the Miami Hurricanes this year.  We loved the season OVER and we loved them last week in a tune up for this week.  Everybody watched the Mountaineers ALMOST pull off the upset against the Vols in week one.  After that first game, the entire world was talking Mountaineers football.  Guess what?  That’s great for us.  Richt won’t let this Miami team sleep on the Mountaineers.  They are well aware of the explosive offense and saw the defense halt the Volunteers offense.  Miami gained 993 yards and scored 108 points in the first two weeks.  This spread should be closer to 6 or 7.  We are getting tremendous value on the Hurricanes here and I see them sealing this one late after a hard fought battle.  I’m expecting a 6-10 point win here in a closer matchup than we want to see.  But believe me, an ugly win is still a win.  The Pick: Miami (-3.5); 2 Units

Notre Dame (-7.5) vs. Michigan State; 51.5

The favorites scare me.  I hate Notre Dame.  Everything is telling me to take Michigan State!!!  Not here.  Can’t do it.  Everyone knows Michigan State plays close games and they play great as an underdog.  However, I think this Notre Dame offense is too much to handle for a lacking Michigan State offense.  Connor Cook is gone.  Tyler O’Connor does not have the ability under center that Cook had last year.  He can’t spread the ball around quite like his predecessor.  This matchup comes down strictly to the differences in offensive ability.  Michigan State was only up 21-13 on Furman (who?!?!?!?) with under 10 minutes left in that game.  The game should NOT have been that close.  If Sparty can only put up 28 against Furman, I’m seeing 17-21 against Notre Dame.  Deshone Kizer is too explosive under center to be completely stopped.  This offense couldn’t be stopped on the national stage in Texas.  I could see Notre Dame running away with this one.  Between us, this will either be an outright upset or a blowout.  If you completely disagree with our take, take Sparty Moneyline.  BUT, we’re swallowing the points here.  The Pick: Notre Dame (-7.5); 1 Unit

Boston College Eagles @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-6); 41.5

The Eagles of Boston College have a putrid offense.  The defense has only given up more than 20 points 3 times in the last 14 matchups (starting game 1 of last season).  The under has hit 11 of the last 12 games where Boston College was involved.  Against FBS opponents, Boston College has only scored more than 20 points once in the last 12 games.  This game will be ugly.  The Pick: Under 41.5; 2 Units

Utah Utes (-13.5) @ San Jose State Spartans; 47

This is the biggest trap game I’ve seen so far this year for any team and it stood out immediately.  The Utah Utes just played their biggest rival (BYU) in a smashmouth, tight game that had all the emotions in the world.  On a short week after, they get USC.  Utah will take a look at their schedule, see these Spartans, and basically pack it in.  Utah will look ahead and get caught off guard here.  Kenny Potter, the dual-threat QB from SJST will be able to get yards on the ground and in the air to keep this team within striking distance.  Up 10-17 in the fourth, Utah will start packing it in and resting up for the Trojans.  Potter will be able to put up a late score or two to fall safely inside the number.  I believe this game will get bet up to a cozy 14+ by gametime, so if you like the pick, take a look on Saturday when the value will be at its best.  The Pick: San Jose State (+13.5); 1 Units



time to take our money and run

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