One of our worst weekends of the year down about 2.5 units. If you listened to the podcast, you were able to hear the SD St halftime line at 9.5. If you caught that in time, you had a positive week at +1.5. But, here at AVS, we take lines as the worst we see to ride along there with everyone else.
For our picks history on the year check it out here
1h San Jose State Spartans @ San Diego State Aztecs (Under 26)
After taking the Aztecs last week, we were forced to sit and watch the methodical running game with the occasional play action for 7 or 8 yards. This Aztecs team was in control the entire half/game, but never felt the need to blow the game away. This is how I see Friday’s conference game against San Jose State University. I expect the Aztecs to have the ball for long, methodical drives. I also expect San Jose State to be stacking the box consistently against Donnell Pumphrey. The key thing we noticed last week is that SD St rarely tries to take the top off the defense. They are perfectly content wearing down a defense with one of the best running backs in college football. San Jose State is in the same boat. Kenny Potter is an above avg QB in the Mountain West, but the team loves to run the ball. The Spartans rank 82/86 respectively in the RYPG/PYPG respectively. Last week the Spartans defense was able to hold the 64th rushing attack in the nation, Nevada, to only 114 yards on the ground. This will be a boring game because San Diego St’s defense is very good. San Diego State will pull away in the second half, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to cover a spread. This first half will be two boxers slowly trying to feel each other out and waiting for the other team to make the first mistake.
The pick: Under 26 (2 Units)
Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (Under 85)
This number is INSANE. We leaned on Tech last week and saw the team get trounced by an overrated West Virginia team. Patrick Mahomes was coming back off an injury to his shoulder and it did not look good. He favored it all over the field and didnt have the same bite on his throws. I’m expecting that to linger a little further into this week. Not convinced he’ll still be laboring? Mahomes was on a torrid pace prior to his injury to end September. He was hitting over 70% of his passes. He came out and the team was able to score on Bill Snyder’s defense, but he didn’t look fully healthy. Last week West Virginia made sure to get a few licks on him when they got close.
I expect cocky Baker Mayfield to have something to say about this game as well. He is here for revenge. It was the bad breakup story you and your ex have nightmares about. Lubbock, TX will get rowdy but Baker will silence the crowd early. Expect this Sooners team to rally around Baker and get more than enough stops to keep this under the number. If Kliff Kingsbury is smart, he’ll run the ball a tad more than usual to keep this out of Mayfield’s hands.
The pick: Under 85 (2 Units)
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers (-10)
This line STINKS to the heavens. Auburn hasn’t really beaten anyone all year and Arkansas is coming off a high beating Ole Miss at home. Auburn had an off week last week to get prepared for this. Auburn seems to finally be clicking and Gus Malzahn may be safe for another year. Expect this team to pick up a ton of yards on the ground. Arkansas has come off back to back weeks against Alabama and Ole Miss. It’s going to be very difficult for this team to get up for a third straight week here. Expect a two touchdown win for the Tigers in a raucous Jordan Hare Stadium Saturday evening
The pick: Auburn -10 (3 Units)
Ole Miss @ LSU Tigers (-7)
This game is the story of two teams that couldn’t possibly be going in more opposite directions. Ole Miss is a mess right now. Chad Kelly is a headcase. Who knows if this team will be able to get it back together to string along some wins to salvage the season. Coach O has this LSU Tigers team FINALLY playing up to its absurd potential. The team is having fun playing for a coach that isnt afraid to let this offense go out and throw the ball around the yard. LSU is fighting for their coach’s job.
Don’t forget the key to this game. With Ole Miss already having two conference losses (and one to front runner Alabama), this team has absolutely nothing to play for after six weeks. LSU is still in control of their own destiny. In theory, this team can beat Alabama and Texas A&M and win the SEC West. I know this isn’t likely, but don’t tell the team that had their backs up against the wall and still has everything to play for.
The pick: LSU -7 (2.5 Units)
TCU Horned Frogs @ West Virginia Mountaineers (-6.5)
Gary Patterson is one of my favorite coaches in the NCAA. The Horned Frogs had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. That means that QB Kenny Hill had an extra week to prepare for this Mountaineers defense. The bye week also allowed playmaking WR Devontae Turpin and the starting center to get healthy again for the Horned Frogs. We’ve been talking up this TCU team the entire year and this is the chance they have to shine. I expect this game to go down to the wire and be a field goal game either way. Give me the points, but don’t be surprised to see a TCU upset here that vaults this Horned Frogs team right back into contention for the Big 12 title.
The pick: TCU +6.5 (1.5 Units)
The Leans:
San Jose State +23
TCU ML
Northwestern -2
Iowa +4
North Carolina (value is gone over 10)
Arizona State +7.5 ***** LOVE
Texas A&M +18
Ohio State/Penn St Over 56.5