Quarter Century Mark of the season FF update

The fantasy football season is officially ¼ over.  Here at AVS, we thought this was a perfect time to re-assess the fantasy football landscape.  4 games is enough time to give us some idea of league wide and team specific trends that can give owners a leg up on other owners for the rest of the season.  We have a much better idea of whom the breakout players are, who are major busts, and we can put new values on all players and positions.

Fun with on pace statistics:

1.       Jordan Cameron – 120 catches, 1440 receiving yards, 20 TDs.  Obviously not sustainable but he’s an elite TE1 until further notice.

2.       Jimmy Graham – 108 catches, 1832 receiving yards, 24 TDs.  His numbers should slip slightly.  Think 1500 receiving yards and 18-20 TDs.

3.       Jamaal Charles – 1156 rushing yards, 92 catches, 852 receiving yards, 16 total TDs.  Expect the rushing total to pick up a bit and the receiving total to fall off a bit, but this is mainly sustainable due to Andy Reid.

4.       Wes Welker – 104 catches, 1064 receiving yards, 24 TDs.  Think playing with Peyton Manning helps?

5.       David Wilson – 152 carries, 520 rushing yards, 8 catches, 32 receiving yards, 0 TDs.  BUST.

6.       Stevan Ridley – 696 rushing yards, 12 catches, 136 receiving yards, 0 TDs.  His usage is more worrisome than Wilson with Blount picking up extra carries this week.

7.       Peyton Manning – 5880 passing yards, 64 TDs, 0 INTS, 75% completion percentage.

8.       Philip Rivers – 4796 passing yards, 44 TDs, 8 INTS, 73.9% completion percentage.

Stock way down: These guys are not who we thought they were

1.       Stevan Ridley – As stated above, his usage is extremely concerning.  Add in the fact that he doesn’t offer anything in the passing game, and he is flex/bench material as a RB3.

2.       Dwayne Bowe – It’s more Alex Smith and the scheme than it is his talent but Alex Smith has shown no willingness to throw the ball down the field.   He’s hard to trust as a low end WR3.

3.       CJ Spiller – Doug Marrone has not figured out how to effectively use him and get him in space on screens and dump offs.  Add in this recent ankle injury and the fact that Fred Jackson has outplayed him this year and owners have a ton to worry about.  He would probably be a 4th round pick in a draft today, not the high first round pick he was expected to be.

4.       Russell Wilson – This also has more to do with scheme and weapons than him.  Seattle is an extremely run heavy squad with little difference making talent at WR and TE so the jump in numbers we all expected won’t be there this year.

5.       MJD – The Jaguars are the worst team in recent memory.  Avoid them at all costs (unless of course you have someone playing against them).


Stock way up: they are even better than whom we thought they were

1.       LeSean McCoy – perfect offense for the Barry Sanders of our generation.  He is virtually un-tackable (made that word up) in the open field.

2.       Philip Rivers – one of the more shocking developments of the season’s first half has been Philip Rivers turning himself into a back end QB1 while missing his two best WR.

3.       Reggie Bush – see McCoy, LeSean.

4.       Jordan Cameron – See above but he is the next great ex-hoops star turned fantasy goldmine.

5.       Knowshon Moreno – he has become the lead back on a team consistently will have a lead all year.  On top of being a top 5 pass blocker in football, he has looked quicker through holes this year.  Would be a 3rd round pick in drafts today.

6.       Matt Forte – Marc Trestman understands how to use him in the screen game.  Overall, has looked faster than previous years.   Top 8 RB for the rest of the season.

7.       Desean Jackson – The Eagles are bad but they are picking up a ton of yards and Jackson is the focal point of their passing game.  Consider him a high end WR2 in most leagues

Sell high:

1.       CJ1K – Jake Locker is out indefinitely.  He is not involved in the passing game.  Plus the Titans face KC, Seattle, and San Fran the next 3 weeks.  Get what you can for him now before its too late.

2.       Kenbrell Thompkins – while he has been good the past few weeks, the Pats will eventually get all their weapons back and he will be sent back to the fourth option in the passing game.

3.       Danny Woodhead – He is simply not a difference making player.  Sell high for a RB2 type especially in PPR leagues, where his value is greater.

4.       Dwayne Bowe – He’s had his first productive game of the season, sell him now for whatever you can get.

5.       Doug Martin – has been very underwhelming so far this year.  He is not involved in the passing game much and is on the most dysfunctional team in the NFL.  Consider him a RB2 that I would have no problem moving for a WR1 if I needed help there.

Buy low:

1.       David Wilson – he’s still the most explosive back on a offense that has no where to go but up.  Plus the Giants still have to play 5 division games against teams that have terrible defenses.  Glimmer of appeal here and he should be available for pennies.  Also some bust potential so tread lightly (get it?).

2.       Brandon Marshall – Alshon Jeffrey and the Black Unicorn have stepped up lately, which will force defenses to pay more attention to them.

3.       AJ Green – Green and Dalton have appeared to be on different pages the past few weeks.  After a tough matchup with Joe Haden this past week, the two should work all week on getting back on the same page.

4.       Big Alfred Morris – The Redskins and RGIII should continue to get better and eventually, will have a lead to protect.  This will lead to more and more opportunities.   RB2 in PPR leagues and low end RB1 in non PPR (who doesn’t play PPR?)

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