Week 1 Overreactions

Week 1 is in the books and if there is one theory we preach at AVS, it is do not overreact to week 1 statistics.  In 2012, the week 1 hero was Kevin Ogletree, who we haven’t heard from since.  In 2011, it was Mark Sanchez who threw for almost 300 yards and 3 TDs and whose head is currently up his offensive lines butt somewhere. This theory is usually accurate and week 1 is merely one of many weeks of statistics.

So what are we going to do after one week?  OVERREACT, of course.  The following are 10 players who have either hurt or helped their stocks in week 1.  If we were drafting today, these players would go much higher/lower than they did during drafts in August.

On the Rise:

  1. LeSean McCoy – Wow.  Between pace of play, individual talent, and offensive line talent, a strong case could be made for LeSean McCoy to be taken NUMBER 1 OVERALL.  You heard me.  He is that shifty, that nifty, and (yes) that “shady” in the open field.  He catches passes.  He is a 3 down back.  The Eagles will be pushing NFL records with their pace of play this year and Chip Kelly is a brilliant offensive mind.  It would surprise no one at AVS if McCoy finished as the number one RB this year.  (Vick and Desean Jackson also rise due to many of the same reasons)
  2. Reggie Bush – The Lions offense looks tailor made for Reggie Bush.  Not only are the Lions more focused on having a balanced offense this year but they want to get Reggie Bush in space which is where he excels.  His usage this year might allow him to flash that ability that he had coming out of USC where he was regarded as a can’t miss RB prospect.
  3. Colin Kaepernick – Jaws, who is a noted quarterback guru, said earlier this week that Kap “could be a top 5 all time quarterback”.  Not top 5 fantasy quarterback.  TOP 5 ALL TIME.  He may have the strongest arm in the league, an absolute cannon that can make any throw with ease.  He also trained with  Olympic runners this offseason, working on his running form and trying to become faster.  Anquan Boldin is the tough WR they didn’t have last year.  Add all these elements up and you are looking at a top 3 fantasy QB option this year.
  4. Wes Welker – So it wasn’t just the system, huh?  He was getting open at will versus the Ravens with his patented quick jukes and routes.  Although he is prone to a few drops, he gets open so easily and so frequently he is impossible to ignore on the field.  Displaying a chemistry with Peyton Manning that made it seem like they played together for years, Welker will be his same old self this year, providing WR1 value in PPR leagues all year long.
  5. TEs – Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook, Rob Gronkowski.  All 4 names need to move up boards.  Vernon Davis, by necessity, is going to be a massive part of the weekly game plan.  Cook and Cameron are an excellent combination of size, athletic ability, scheme, and opportunity that make them prime break out candidates and legit top 6 TEs on a weekly basis.  Gronk, expected back in week 3, is going to be a major part of the game plan with Amendola and Vereen injured already.  He was a steal any later than round 3 in your draft.

On the Decline:

  1. Marshawn Lynch – Didn’t he look slow versus the Panthers?  Yes, the Panthers have a vicious and underrated front 7, but he looked slow to hit the hole all day.  Throw in the fact that he doesn’t offer much value in the passing game and was given up on by the Bills after only a few years, and there is real reason to be concerned.  He is currently a high end RB2 until further notice.
  2. Lamar Miller – The hype train for Miller has been picking up steam all summer.  However, the truth is that he is a “weak” runner, often avoiding contact and trying to use only his speed to gain yards.  Because of this, he leaves yards on the field.  Throw in the fact Miller is in a timeshare with Daniel “molasses” Thomas, Miller is currently more of a 5th round pick RB3, than 3rd round pick RB2 he was drafted as.
  3. Dez Bryant – Uh oh.  Lisfranc and Middle foot sprain have been mentioned as possibilities this week although it looks like he has avoided that.  However, the real reason for concern is the fact that Tony Romo was comfortable (and successful) looking elsewhere in the offense.  The Giants decided to double Dez on every play and leave Miles Austin and Jason Witten one on one all game.  Dez had trouble beating double teams and if he is hobbled moving forward, he may be in for a few rough games coming up.
  4. Eric Decker – Last year everything was ripe for a breakout year as he was the number 2 option in a Peyton Manning led offense.  This year, with the addition of Wes Welker and the emergence of Julius Thomas, there are simply too many mouths to feed.  Week to week consistency is going to be hard to come by for Decker.  At the moment he is more of a low end WR3 then WR2 he was probably drafted as.

Tony Gonzalez – He has to slow down eventually right?  Between the plethora of TE options mentioned above, the addition of Steven Jackson to give the Falcons a RB option besides lead footed Michael Turner, and the continued growth of Julio Jones, his role will be slightly diminished anyway.  He is having more and more trouble separating from LBs on a weekly basis.  Add this up and he gravitates toward low end TE1 this year.

Written by @Svdubs34

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