Chicago (+1.5) @ St Louis
Chicago is the better team here. A banged up Cutler on the sidelines has this line reacting to the public’s overreaction. McCown is not that bad and he still has Matt Forte lined up behind him and Brandon Marshall lined out wide. Throw the ball to either of these guys in space and let them work. The Rams have played well without starting QB Sam Bradford, but this team is playing way above expectations. They are about to fall back to Earth this week with a flop vs the Bears. Bears win 27-17
Cleveland (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh
I looked at this game very quickly and did a double take of this spread. Pittsburgh is playing like a different team than it did in the beginning of the season. The offense is rolling and the defense has been making some stops. I thought to myself, “Steelers – easy pick.” But, as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend.” The line is too good to be true. And in Vegas, when this is the case, more than likely, this line is too good to be true. Take the home favorite by less than a field goal and thank me later. Jason Campbell and Josh Gordon will have big days against Troy and that Pittsburgh secondary.
Miami (+3.5) vs. Carolina
A big televised, controversial game by the Panthers has everyone waking up to this Carolina team. Guess what folks, I still don’t buy it. Miami is fighting for playoff hopes and is getting points at home. Carolina is coming off an emotional win where they showed the world they are for real. Monday night emotional win usually leads to a Sunday afternoon flop. Take the points with the home dog.
Green Bay (-3.5) vs Minnesota
I know, I know. How could I possibly pick a team that is sending out Scott Tolzien under center. The answer: how I could possibly pick a team sending Christian Ponder under center. The Packers are a good team and the Vikings are not. No one player is worth as big of a spread swing as Vegas is giving the Packers with Rodgers. To be safe!!!! beat the hook and buy a half point. Green Bay -3 (-130). But at AVS we don’t buy hooks. I’ll still take GB -3.5. Eddie Lacy will have a field day in the chill of Lambeau.
Arizona (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis
All year I’ve been saying it. Indianapolis isn’t that good. I’ll gladly take a team that’s fighting for a playoff spot vs a team that got shellacked by the Rams and then barely beat a mediocre Titans team.
San Diego (+5.5) at Kansas City
SD is a little better than people think and this game comes at a horrible time for the Cheifs, sandwhiched in between their two matchups with the Broncos. Look for the Chiefs to be looking ahead to next week and the Chargers to steal one outright.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Cleveland
People continue to overrate this Cleveland team as they only games with Brian Hoyer at QB. Weeden and Campbell have a combined 1 win this year. Back the better team getting points.
NY Jets (+3.5) at Baltimore
Jekyl and Hyde continues this week with the Jets fresh off a blowout loss. This week they face a Ravens team that struggles to score. In what figures to be a low scoring defensive battle, grab the points.
Arizona (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis
Arizona is 6-3 SU in their last 9 with their only losses against NO, SF, and SEA. Throw in a dominating defense and a home crowd that smells the playoffs, and I’m surprised this line isn’t higher.
New England (+2.5) vs. Denver
Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck as home dogs off a loss?! Thank you. Parlay of the week: take NE and Pitt to win straight up and thank me later.
Baltimore (-3.5) vs New York Jets
The bad Geno is back, after getting crushed last week I don’t think the Jets will turn it around. Baltimore has not played great either but I think they pull this one out. I wish both teams would lose to be honest.
Carolina (-3.5) @ Miami
This sounds like it could be a trap game but Cam is playing too good right now. He hgot lost behind the rookies QBs last year but Superman is reminding why he was the number one a few years ago.
Chicago (+1.5) @ St.Louis
Even with all their injuries the Bears are a better team. They won’t have to deal with the weather this week and are getting a point.
Oakland (-1.5) vs Tennessee
Don’t know why I picked this game but for some reason it stuck out. Jennings has run the ball nicely since starting. Pryor is out again but maybe the home crowd can push for a win.
Denver (-2.5) @ New England
I kinda like when the Pats get screwed to end games, it feels right. Peyton vs Brady is always a battle usually with Brady winning. Welker TD late seals it in his return.