NCAAF Best Bets: Week 1

Its Week 1.  Time to give out some free money….

Lets just get to the picks:

1-5 Star ratings and keeping track of net stars:

South Carolina -2.5 UNC; 63.5

South Carolina has a brand new starting QB (Connor Mitch) who just won the job late in fall camp.  He’s inexperienced on a team that didn’t do a whole lot last year.  He has one stud receiver in Pharoah Cooper, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to get him the ball.  The ol’ ball coach will have to call a ton of screens and short passes to try to get him the ball in open space.  On the other side of the ball, the Gamecock defense is BAD.  They started last season as the 9th ranked team in the nation and gave up 53 points to a bad Texas A&M team.  I honestly don’t know if they will be able to stop the UNC offense.

The UNC offensive breakdown is simple.  Stars everywhere.  8 returning starters on offense.  Marquise Williams is a stud dual threat QB that could break ACC records this year (that’s how much this offense will score).  He has two great receivers in Ryan Switzer and Quinshad David and a top tandem of RBs (Logan and Hood).  If we can point out the defense of South Carolina, we have to note UNC was EVEN WORSE!  I think this team’s offense will be too much for South Carolina and the UNC defense will be able to get enough stops to pull this out

Pick: UNC +2.5 (3.5 Stars)

Michigan State -17 Western Michigan;  57.5

Connor Cook is one of the best QBs in football, plain and simple.  He’s a preseason top 7 Heisman Trophy candidate and is already being talked about as a franchise QB on the next level.  This Michigan State team returns a ton of starters, including 4 on the offensive line.  This team is great in the trenches.  They ran the ball down your throat last year and the line gave Cook ages in the pocket to find the open WRs.  The defense is a top 10 defense each year and Dantonio is one of the best and most underrated coaches in the NCAA.  WMU had an 8 win season last year and the world thinks highly of them. Michigan State needs to win and win convincingly if they want to keep their national title hopes alive.  Sparty will win this game by 21 at least and show they are a force to be reckoned with.

The Pick: Michigan State -17 (5 Stars)

Ohio State -11.5 Va Tech; 52.5

OSU is the best team in the nation.  They were “too young” to win it all last year and still did.  This team is legit.  There is revenge on their mind from losing to Va Tech last year.  The OSU offense is really good and has just too many weapons to stop completely.  The Tech offense was able to slow OSU early in the year last year, but that was Barrett’s second game under center and Elliot only got 8 carries!  This was a completely different team than it is now.  Urban Meyer has had all summer to scheme against a BAD Va Tech offense.  OSU suspended a few players for the first game and only one will matter (Joey Bosa).  Everyone will overreact and when the world zigs, we zag.  Blacksburg will be rocking, but that’s about all Va Tech will have going for it.  Michael Brewer is a BAD QB and watching an offense run by him is ugly.  There are no better options in Hokie Land.

The pick: Ohio State -11.5 (3 stars)

Small picks counted separately:

  1. Arizona State +3 (2 stars)
  2. UNC/SC Over 63.5 (2 Stars)
  3. Duke -7 (1.5 stars)
  4. Washington +12 (1.5 stars)
  5. Notre Dame -10.5 (1.5 stars)
  6. Utah -5 (1 star)
  7. Louisville +11 (0 stars)

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